Humanist

In the 2001 election, over 5.1 million Ugandans voted for candidate Yoweri Kagutta Museveni, the incumbent President. This represented 69.4% of Ugandans who voted (69.7% of Ugandans who were eligible to vote).

Ten years later, in the 2011 election, over 5.4 million Ugandans voted for candidate Museveni, the incumbent President. This represented 68.4% of Ugandans who voted (59.3% of Ugandans who were eligible to vote).

Using numbers, the assertion of opposition leaning commentators can be nullified. After all, 305,008 Ugandans more voted for candidate Museveni in 2011 as compared to 2001.

However, arriving at such a conclusion is superficial, because the numbers who voted for candidate Museveni do not indicate those who did not vote for him once again. As in those who chose not to vote for him again.

Therefore, it is probably more useful to debate candidate Museveni’s political strength, and by extension the political strength of NRM, using percentages. Percentages help visualize proportions for and against.

For example, by using percentages, we confirm the thesis of the opposition leaning commentators that there is a reduction in the numbers of Ugandans who bother to vote:

• In 1996, the turnout was 72.6% of eligible voters
• In 2001, turnout reduced by 2.9% to 69.7%
• 10 years later, in 2006, it significantly reduced by another 10.4% to 59.3%.

However, can we conclusively deduce that reduction in voter turnout necessarily means weakening of the NRM?

Asked another way, whose voters are not turning out to vote – is it supporters of NRM or supporters of the opposition who have the greatest apathy?

Continuing with those who voted for candidate Museveni in 2001 and 2011, using percentages, one clearly sees that there was a reduction in candidate Museveni voter base by 1%. And, therefore, a de facto gain by the opposition.

In fact, in comparison to the 1996 election, candidate Museveni’s strength can be deduced to have weakened significantly by 7.1%; de facto indicating that since 1996 the opposition has gained strength.

What is fascinating, however, is that the opposition gains seem decimated by the opposition’s inability to form alliances that allow for a single or at most two ‘strong candidates’ to compare with candidate Museveni.

Meaning that the opposition’s gains are splintered among several ‘weaker candidates’ compared to candidate Museveni.

In the 2006 elections, candidate Dr. Kizza Besigye of the Forum for Democratic Change (FDC) garnered 37.4% of the vote; an impressive showing indeed. What happened in 2011 when his percentage reduced by 11.4% to only 26%?

Apparently, in 2011, candidate Museveni regained by 9.1% the voters he had lost in 2006; a major blow to the opposition gains.

This analysis was inspired by the Capital Gang radio talk show on 91.3 Capital FM on Saturday 21st February 2015. During the show, the gangsters discussed the strength of political parties in Uganda. They did so on the basis of voter turnout and the numbers who vote for each candidate.

The gangsters who were opposition leaning asserted that the ruling party was weak because the number of Ugandans who bother to vote is reducing every election since 1996. The reason they gave was that this is because Ugandans are increasingly dissatisfied with the ruling National Resistance Movement (NRM).

The NRM leaning gangsters, in order to prove the strength of their political party, insisted on pointing out the numbers of NRM members of parliament; the numbers of NRM local councilors; and the increase in the number of Ugandans who vote at every election and who vote for candidate Museveni.

Ten years later, today, 16th July 2025, and as we prepare for yet another election, slated for 2026, this analysis remains even the more relevant. In the last election, after all, the dynamic remained fairly skewed in favor of candidate Museveni, the incumbent President.

In the 2021 election, over 6 million Ugandans voted for candidate Museveni. This represented 58.4% of Ugandans who voted (59.4% of Ugandans who were eligible to vote).

Whereas, in the 2021 election, Hon. Robert Kyagulanyi Ssentamu of the National Unity Platform (NUP), had a good showing garnering 35.1% of the vote, he fell short of the opposition glory of 2006, when Dr. Besigye garnered 37.4% of the vote.

There is every indication that the NRM remains strong to win presidential and parliamentary elections, not necessarily because of its popularity, but because the opposition further fractures and splinters.