the Humanist view

Power of Numbers

Over a 30-year period, since 1996, there have been seven presidential elections conducted in Uganda.

Each time, the incumbent, candidate Yoweri Kagutta Museveni, was on the ballot, and was declared winner with the highest number of votes.

Using numbers, an assertion of opposition leaning commentators can be nullified. After all, 339,899 more Ugandans voted for candidate Museveni in 2011 as compared to 2001, for example.

• 2026, candidate Museveni got 7,946,772 votes; an increase of 1,903,874
• 2021, candidate Museveni got 6,042,898 votes; an increase of 71,026
• 2016, candidate Museveni got 5,971,872 votes; an increase of 543,503
• 2011, candidate Museveni got 5,428,369 votes; an increase of 1,318,920
• 2006, candidate Museveni got 4,109.449 votes; a decrease of 979,021
• 2001, candidate Museveni got 5,088,470 votes; an increase of 630,275
• 1996, candidate Museveni got 4,458.195 votes.

However, arriving at such a conclusion is superficial, because numbers of Ugandans who voted for candidate Museveni do not indicate those who did not vote for him again.

As in the winner numbers do not show those who chose not to vote for candidate Museveni again.

Proportions in Percentages

It is more useful to debate candidate Museveni’s political strength, and by extension the political strength of his party, the National Resistance Movement (NRM), using percentages.

By using percentages, we confirm a thesis of opposition leaning commentators that there is a significant reduction in Ugandans who bother to vote; a 20% reduction, in fact, in comparison to 1996:

• 2026, turnout was 52.5%; a reduction of 6.9% from the previous election.
• 2021, turnout was 59.4%; a reduction of 8.2% from the previous election.
• 2016, turnout was 67.6%; an increase of 8.3% from the previous election.
• 2011, turnout was 59.3%; same as the previous election.
• 2006, turnout was 59.3%; a reduction of 10.4% from previous election.
• 2001, turnout was 69.7%; a reduction of 2.9% from previous election.
• 1996, turnout was 72.6% of eligible voters.

Be that as it may, can we conclusively deduce that reduction in voter turnout necessarily means weakening of the NRM?

Who is not turning out to vote?

Asked another way, whose voters are not turning out to vote – is it supporters of NRM or supporters of the opposition who have the greatest apathy?

Continuing with those who voted for candidate Museveni in 2001 and 2011, using percentages, one clearly sees that there was a reduction in the candidate Museveni voter base by 1%. And, therefore, a de facto gain by the opposition.

In comparison to the 1996 election, it can be deducted that candidate Museveni’s strength in 2021, before the most recent election, weakened significantly by 15.9%.

De facto indicating that since 1996 the opposition gained strength.

• 2026, candidate Museveni won with 71.7% of the vote.
• 2021, candidate Museveni won with 58.4% of the vote.
• 2016, candidate Museveni won with 60.6% of the vote.
• 2011, candidate Museveni won with 68.4% of the vote.
• 2006, candidate Museveni won with 59.2% of the vote.
• 2001, candidate Museveni won with 69.5% of the vote.
• 1996, candidate Museveni won with 74.3% of the vote.

Even though, in 2026, candidate Museveni was declared as having regained strength, in comparison to 1996, his popularity among the electorate remains weaker.

Splintered ‘Opposition’

It is fascinating, however, that the opposition gains seem decimated by the opposition’s inability to form alliances that allow for a single or at most two ‘strong candidates’ to compare with candidate Museveni.

Meaning that the opposition’s gains are splintered among several ‘weaker candidates’ compared to candidate Museveni.

In the 2006 elections, candidate Dr. Kizza Besigye of the Forum for Democratic Change (FDC) garnered 37.4% of the vote; an impressive showing indeed.

What happened in 2011 when his percentage reduced by 11.4% to only 26%?

Apparently, in 2011, candidate Museveni regained by 9.1% the voters he had lost in 2006; a major blow to the opposition gains.

Whereas, in the 2021 election, Hon. Robert Kyagulanyi Ssentamu of the National Unity Platform (NUP), had a good showing garnering 35.1% of the vote, he fell short of the opposition glory of 2006, when Dr. Besigye garnered 37.4% of the vote.

Eleven years later, today, 17th July 2026, this analysis remains even the more relevant.

There is every indication the NRM remains strong, winning presidential and parliamentary elections, not necessarily because of its popularity, but because the opposition further fractures and splinters.

This analysis first published in 2015 and updated today, 17th July 2026, was inspired by the Capital Gang radio talk show on 91.3 Capital FM on Saturday 21st February 2015 and hosted by Mr. Oskar Ssemweya Musoke. During the show, the gangsters discussed the strength of political parties in Uganda. They did so on the basis of voter turnout and the numbers who vote for each candidate. The gangsters who were opposition leaning asserted that the ruling party was weak because the number of Ugandans who bother to vote is reducing every election since 1996. The reason they gave was that this is because Ugandans are increasingly dissatisfied with the ruling NRM. The NRM leaning gangsters, in order to prove the strength of their political party, insisted on pointing out the numbers of NRM members of parliament; the numbers of NRM local councilors; and the increase in the number of Ugandans who vote at every election and who vote for candidate Museveni.